«Delta variant? Prudence yes, permanent alert no».

Cases of infection can be counted on the fingers of my hand, the number of deaths has been eliminated for more than a month and, as of today, no COVID patients are hospitalized. These numbers are good for morale, after a year and a half of pandemic. But just what should we expect in the coming months? What about the Delta variant? «The lack of hospitalizations for the virus is the result of two aspects - explains the cantonal doctor Giorgio Merlani - From one side, it is caused by the slowdown of infections, thanks to the virus seasonality, but also the containment measures taken. On the other, it is the result of the campaign of vaccination, which has greatly reduced complications and deaths». In the last weeks, we have an average of five cases per day, « younger and less symptomatic infections», while we keep on testing a lot: «Between 200 and 400 swabs per day are carried out, but little is found. A sign that the virus is circulating less.» If the situation is clearly improving, the Delta variant raises new questions. Following the first three cases a few weeks ago, four more have been reported in Ticino. «We know that this variation is circulating and, looking at what has happened in other countries, it is presumable that it will become dominant here as well». According to the cantonal doctor, «it is important to follow carefully the signals and, if necessary, to be ready to act. But we cannot live in a state of perpetual alert». Therefore, prudence, but not panic.

The hypotheses on the table

The Federal Council, while planning for the coming months, is thinking about a vaccination booster already in the fall. «We have good indications that the vaccination coverage provided by the formulations used in Switzerland will last at least a year. Some have already put forward the idea of administering a third dose to certain categories, such as people with a more fragile immune system.

At the moment, though, all of these are just speculation on the table. Once the scientific evidence is more solid, we will move. After all, we have learned to act according to the situation, proving the necessary flexibility and preparation». But what, according to the cantonal doctor, is the most likely scenario? «If a totally new variant were to appear, one capable of escaping the vaccine, we could find ourselves at the foot of the ladder and having to start from scratch.» That hypothesis, however, is considered «unlikely». «Some of the molecular and biological analyses - points out Merlani - indicate that the virus would have reached its apex, with respect to the ability to mutate, and that the Delta variant is the maximum of its reachable strength. If this were really the case, we could count on the protection of the vaccine, which does not prevent people from getting sick, but it prevents serious consequences». Getting vaccinated, then, remains critical. «It is both an entirely selfless and self-serving gesture. Whoever vaccinates avoids getting severely ill and enjoys greater freedom, thanks to the COVID certificate. At the same time, it is also a gesture for the community: the more people who vaccinate, the less the virus circulates. I rely on the population of Ticino, who have experienced the consequences of the pandemic first-hand. We have had friends, relatives and acquaintances hospitalized or, sadly, died from the coronavirus. If everyone makes a small effort we can finally get out of this.»