The population in 2050 will grow almost everywhere, but not in Ticino

© KEYSTONE / Christian Merz

The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) expects that in 2050 the Swiss population will increase from the current 8.6 million residents to 10.4 million. Ticino and Grisons will be the only cantons with a demographic decline, while the most marked growth will be in Zurich and Geneva.

The increase will largely be due to migration and the scale will depend on the development of Switzerland's socio-economic and political environment. Between 2020 and 2030, the aging of the population will be rapid, and then slow down a bit, even without stopping, summarises the FSO.

If the baseline scenario developed by the FSO occurs, the number of permanent residents in Switzerland would rise from 8.5 million people in 2018 to 9.4 million in 2030 and 10.4 million in 2050, with an average annual growth of 0.6% - 75% of it would be due to migration.

In the period under review, the population could also reach 11.4 million according to a scenario defined as "high", which presupposes a higher migratory balance, an increase in stronger fertility and a slightly faster progression of life expectancy. The "lower" scenario (less migration, slightly decreasing fertility, and slower rising life expectancy) requires 9.5 million residents in 2050.

According to the baseline scenario, residents in the cantons of Geneva, Aargau, Zug, Vaud, Zurich, Schaffhausen and St. Gallen will increase by more than 25% over the next three decades - compared to an average Swiss growth of 20%.

The population will continue to be concentrated around the Zurich region and in the Lemanic arc. ’Ticino and Grisons will be the only ones to register a slight demographic decrease, equal to about 5%’ states the FSO. Between 2020 and 2030, the most numerous generations of the baby boom will progressively reach the so-called third age, and the increase in the number of over-65s will be very strong: by almost 30%.

Between 2018 and 2050 the growth of pensioners will amount to around 70%; not purely for an increasing number of residents over 65, but also due to the increase in life expectancy.

According to the reference scenario, in 2050 there will be 2.7 million people aged 65 or over in Switzerland, compared to 1.6 million at the end of 2019. The share of pensioners will therefore go from 18.6% to 26%. In the next thirty years the active population will increase by 12% and will be 5.6 million people (4.8 million in full-time equivalents). The "high" scenario reaches 6.2 million (+ 25%), the "low" scenario stops at 5 million (-1%). In 2019 there were 35 people of retirement age per 100 active people aged between 20 and 64. But this figure will drop to 53 by 2050 ("high" scenario 52, "low" scenario 55).

The FSO notes that women currently have more educational qualifications than men. At the time the share of men with a university degree or higher vocational education in the population of 25-64 years is higher than that of women: 48% against 41%. But in 2040 it will be the opposite: 57% of women versus 54% of men.

Covid-19 has practically no impact

According to the federal office, the temporary increase in the number of deaths due to the Covid-19 epidemic should also almost have no impact on future demographic development.

Experts currently speculate that between 2000 and 3000 people in Switzerland will die from coronavirus. Out of a total of around 60,000 deaths per year, 3,000 deaths represent a 5% increase. But this must be put into perspective, writes the FSO - some of the people, especially the elderly, who die from the virus could also die for another reason in 2020.

However, the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic is likely to have an impact on migration flows, both by reducing and rapidly increasing immigration if, as happened during the last economic crisis, Switzerland is able to cope better with the disaster than other countries impact of on activities.

At the moment the extent and duration of these changes cannot be predicted. If immigration increases only for months, the demographic development over the years will hardly be affected.